The number of people with insufficient food for consumption across seven selected countries in West Africa was 106.5 million as at end of February 2022, a new report from the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) has said.
This was a 0.8 percent increase from January 2022, suggesting that the region’s food security situation deteriorated over the reporting period.
In Burkina Faso and Mali, the prevalence of insufficient food for consumption remained very high at 57.1% and 61.2% of the total population, respectively, despite the countries recording low decreases of 1.74% and 0.84%, respectively, in the number of people without insufficient food for consumption during the month.
Cote d’Ivoire recorded a low increase of 1.85% of people with insufficient food for consumption, with the prevalence at moderately high levels of 21.9% of the total population. In Niger, the prevalence of insufficient food for consumption also remained very high (66.1%). The country saw a moderately high (12.9%) increase in the number of people with insufficient food for consumption.
Most African countries namely Egypt, Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya and South Africa depend on food imports (wheat, maize and sunflower oil) from Russia and Ukraine. As of 2020, Russia exported USD 4 billion worth of agricultural products to Africa, with wheat accounting for 90% of total exports. Similarly, during the same year, Ukraine exported USD 2.9 billion worth of agricultural products to Africa, wheat accounting for 48% and maize 31%.
Beyond Africa and at the global level, both countries produce 4% of the global maize supplies further demonstrating the important role the two countries play in the global food security market including that of Africa, the report by the Food Trade Unit, Policy and State Capability (PSC) Division of AGRA said.
In February 2022, the food insecurity hotspots were South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. During the month, conflict-affected areas in the East Africa region continued to experience IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) outcomes. The late start of the rainy season and subsequent erratic and below-average rainfall and tropical cyclones recorded across most parts of Southern Africa, have affected cropping activities, and will likely lead to below average harvests across most parts of the region. Most of West Africa continued to experience IPC Phase 1 (minimal) and IPC Phase 2 (stressed) outcomes, which are expected to remain in place until May 2022. Food Trade.
Although global grain prices dipped at the beginning of the year, they surged from late January into February. This is expected to persist due to increasing macroeconomic pressures driven by the spill-over effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine, both significant players in the global grains market. Weather shocks and insecurity/armed conflicts in parts of the East African region have affected crop outputs and led to price surges in most markets. In Southern Africa, seasonality effects and conflicts in parts of the region have led to price surges while the availability of existing stocks continues to cushion prices in some parts of the region. In West Africa, insecurity, armed conflicts, weather shocks, and macroeconomic shock have driven higher food prices in the region. Climatic conditions. The forecasts for the March-April-May (MAM) rainfall season indicate a wetter than normal season in the central and southern parts of the East Africa region. In Southern Africa current conditions and forecasts for the next three months indicate below-average rainfall for most parts of the region. The rainfall forecasts for March-April-May indicate normal to above-normal rainfall for most parts of the West Africa region.
Impact of Russia – Ukraine War on Food Security
Closing of ports in Ukraine and farmers neglecting their fields in a bid to stay alive will result in significant shortage of wheat supplies from Ukraine to the rest of the world. In addition, as sanctions against Russia by Western countries increase, grain exports from Russia are also likely to be suspended further worsening the global food supplies. The military action by Russia in Ukraine has resulted in disruptions in global food supply chains and of crude oil which has resulted in an immediate surge in commodity prices.
The world was already facing high commodity prices driven by the recent COVID-19 pandemic and the increase in global demand (mainly by India and China) for grains and oilseeds on the back of poor production outlook in South America which has been affected by droughts. With parts of the region in Africa also projected to record below-average seasonal harvests following poor rains (in East Africa) and tropical cyclones in Southern Africa, we expect this to further put a pressure on food prices.
Global maize prices have increased by 21%, wheat 35%, soybeans 20% and sunflower oil 11%3 . Should the situation remain the same, African countries that depend on food imports from both Russia and Ukraine are expected to face serious food insecurity situations in the near term driven by lack of economic access to food particularly among low-income households. Food producers, namely farmers in these countries will likely benefit from these high food prices, but we also expect that their production costs to surge on the back of increasing oil prices also driven by the conflict. Increases in fuel prices due to supply chain disruptions in the Black Sea will significantly increase input costs pushing production costs and commodity prices up. This conflict has again further exposed the vulnerability of Food Systems in Africa are highly dependent on imports for food supplies.
